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'Wall Street 2020' panel details recession's future
Joshua Kurtz
Issue date: 4/24/09 Section: News
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Panelists at the event included Richard Lang, executive vice president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia; Robert J. Delany Sr., chief financial officer of Sciens Capital Management; David Becher, a Drexel finance professor; and Josh Hall, a Drexel Ph.D. student.
Hall said there were some slight signs that the pace of the economic downturn was slowing somewhat.
"Things are getting worse less quickly," Hall said.
He added that there had been some leveling off of economic indicators, which had been falling more precipitously. The indicators could signal a decrease in the steepness of the downturn, although it is still too early to know for certain. The state of the international economy would impact on the United States' economic recovery as well.
Hall also cautioned against a quick decrease in unemployment. He said that the unemployment rate has had a tendency to lag behind economic cycles, meaning that even after a recession ends, the unemployment rate has continued to increase for a time.
Lang said some forecasters are saying that the United States' gross domestic product could grow slightly during the second half of 2009. The performance of GDP is a key indicator of the health of an economy. Recessions do end, he said, and the current case "is no different."
The panel also discussed longer term economic forecasts. Hall stressed that even with the current recession, the United States economy has tended to increase relatively consistently over the long run.
Delany said often times, economic downturns are followed by a period of entrepreneurial growth.
"I think there's going to be tremendous opportunities, but I think they are going to look different than in the past," Delany said.
Delany added that he thought Drexel students would be positioned very well for the economic changes due to the realistic and hands-on nature of a Drexel education.
Other questions discussed during the event included a query about whether the United States would eventually contain only a few banks, and whether those banks would be run by the government. Lang said he did not think either part of the scenario would occur.
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