Spring Break
"13 keys" system predicts president
Janhavi Purohit
Issue date: 10/17/08 Section: News
Alan Lichtman, professor of history at American University, held a lecture at Drexel Oct. 9 on his "13 Keys to the White House" theory, which is used to predict whether or not the incumbent party will be re-elected for office.
During the lecture, sponsored by the Great Works Symposium, Lichtman said the keys have been accurate about predicting the popular vote "since the horse and buggy days."
The keys predict the popular vote and include factors such as incumbency, third parties, the short-term economy, and foreign and military failure or success. According to Lichtman, the keys have correctly predicted the popular vote for six elections in a row, since 1984.
Lichtman added that the keys were formulated from theories on earthquake prediction. Lichtman collaborated with a leading authority on earthquake predictions, Vladimir Keilis-Borok, in 1981 to create his system of keys.
"This came out of a theory on earthquake prediction," Lichtman said. "We predict upheaval versus stability in earthquakes, and it's the same with elections. Sometimes, the party holding the White House gets thrown out-but one always maintains control."
Lichtman looked at features of the political environment to see which features are associated with stability and upheaval in order to determine his keys.
"Elections are referenda on the White House," Lichtman said. "The 13 keys are a way of measuring whether or not a party in power gets four more years in the White House."
Lichtman added that only two of the keys relate to individual candidates-whether or not the incumbent is charismatic or a national hero as opposed to the challenging party.
"The keys mostly measure the strength, unity and performance of the parties in power," Lichtman said. "If the party holding the white house governs well, they get another four years. If they govern badly, they get thrown out of office."
According to Lichtman, if the key is true, it favors the incumbent party. If it is false, it favors the challenger. If six or more of the keys are false, the party in control of the White House loses, and if fewer than six are false, the party in control of the White House wins.
During the lecture, sponsored by the Great Works Symposium, Lichtman said the keys have been accurate about predicting the popular vote "since the horse and buggy days."
The keys predict the popular vote and include factors such as incumbency, third parties, the short-term economy, and foreign and military failure or success. According to Lichtman, the keys have correctly predicted the popular vote for six elections in a row, since 1984.
Lichtman added that the keys were formulated from theories on earthquake prediction. Lichtman collaborated with a leading authority on earthquake predictions, Vladimir Keilis-Borok, in 1981 to create his system of keys.
"This came out of a theory on earthquake prediction," Lichtman said. "We predict upheaval versus stability in earthquakes, and it's the same with elections. Sometimes, the party holding the White House gets thrown out-but one always maintains control."
Lichtman looked at features of the political environment to see which features are associated with stability and upheaval in order to determine his keys.
"Elections are referenda on the White House," Lichtman said. "The 13 keys are a way of measuring whether or not a party in power gets four more years in the White House."
Lichtman added that only two of the keys relate to individual candidates-whether or not the incumbent is charismatic or a national hero as opposed to the challenging party.
"The keys mostly measure the strength, unity and performance of the parties in power," Lichtman said. "If the party holding the white house governs well, they get another four years. If they govern badly, they get thrown out of office."
According to Lichtman, if the key is true, it favors the incumbent party. If it is false, it favors the challenger. If six or more of the keys are false, the party in control of the White House loses, and if fewer than six are false, the party in control of the White House wins.
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