Iraq: The next twenty years
Robert Zaller
Issue date: 4/6/07 Section: Ed-Op
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At the end of Fiasco, Thomas E. Ricks' indispensable account of our military blundering in Iraq, Ricks offers four possible scenarios for the years ahead. The best-case scenario, as he puts it, would be to "keep a lid" on the present insurgency that would limit its "reach and intensity." This would be "success" as he defines it, but, as he acknowledges, "success really means staying in Iraq for years." The analogy he suggests is our conquest of the Philippines, the first overseas war of atrocity we waged, and one that cost the lives of hundreds of thousands of Filipinos.
The middling scenario, Ricks says, involves an American pullout "before the job is done" - though what job that might be is unclear, since his best-case scenario still leaves an undefeated insurgency that could well rise again. In the middling scenario, even a decently trained (and, of necessity, Shiite-dominated) Iraqi security force would have to forcibly occupy the Sunni triangle around Baghdad for years to come. This would be a recipe for ongoing civil war; hence, says Ricks, "any U.S. withdrawal would almost certainly lead to far greater violence." The analogy here for Ricks is France in Algeria, an eight-year war that led to the overthrow of the Fourth French Republic, or Israel in Lebanon, an 18-year occupation that led to unilateral withdrawal, border destabilization and a subsequent war.
A worse scenario, Ricks continues, envisions a civil war involving partition, foreign intervention and general regional destabilization - including, potentially, the fall of the Saudi monarchy, oil at $200 a barrel, and the necessity for America to reinvade Arabia "with a broken army." Even that, however, pales before Ricks' "nightmare scenario," a National Intelligence Council fantasy in which a Saladin-style leader emerges from the ruins of Iraq to restore the Arab caliphate, acquires nuclear capability and threatens Western capitals.
All of these scenarios have one element in common: While a continuing American presence in Iraq does not guarantee any good outcome there, an American withdrawal would be catastrophic. In short, we are stuck for the duration - an indefinite, open-ended duration in which, for the foreseeable future, the presence of American force, both in and around Iraq, is the only stay against disaster.
The middling scenario, Ricks says, involves an American pullout "before the job is done" - though what job that might be is unclear, since his best-case scenario still leaves an undefeated insurgency that could well rise again. In the middling scenario, even a decently trained (and, of necessity, Shiite-dominated) Iraqi security force would have to forcibly occupy the Sunni triangle around Baghdad for years to come. This would be a recipe for ongoing civil war; hence, says Ricks, "any U.S. withdrawal would almost certainly lead to far greater violence." The analogy here for Ricks is France in Algeria, an eight-year war that led to the overthrow of the Fourth French Republic, or Israel in Lebanon, an 18-year occupation that led to unilateral withdrawal, border destabilization and a subsequent war.
A worse scenario, Ricks continues, envisions a civil war involving partition, foreign intervention and general regional destabilization - including, potentially, the fall of the Saudi monarchy, oil at $200 a barrel, and the necessity for America to reinvade Arabia "with a broken army." Even that, however, pales before Ricks' "nightmare scenario," a National Intelligence Council fantasy in which a Saladin-style leader emerges from the ruins of Iraq to restore the Arab caliphate, acquires nuclear capability and threatens Western capitals.
All of these scenarios have one element in common: While a continuing American presence in Iraq does not guarantee any good outcome there, an American withdrawal would be catastrophic. In short, we are stuck for the duration - an indefinite, open-ended duration in which, for the foreseeable future, the presence of American force, both in and around Iraq, is the only stay against disaster.
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