Drastic temperature rise over past century
Feature: Global Warming
Vivek Thuppil
Issue date: 8/20/04 Section: Sci-Tech
From the two previous features on climate change, we now know that climate change has taken place naturally for hundreds of millions of years, sometimes with extreme consequences ("Climate change overload: When the Earth froze over," The Triangle, July 9, p. 14). Professor Kilham talked to us about the many changes that are taking place across the planet right now because of climate change ("Global climate change catastrophe looms ahead," The Triangle, Aug 6, p. 12). In this commentary, I will tie these ideas together.
First of all, global warming is real. It's been happening steadily and we've been documenting it. The Earth has been warming, and it is largely, if not entirely, due to human actions. Over the past century, the Earth has warmed by about one degree Celsius. More than half of that change has taken place over the past 30 years, when carbon dioxide emissions due to combustion of fossil fuels peaked. Although this may not sound like a lot, it actually is. The Earth's average temperature is about 18 degrees Celsius, and to warm the whole planet by an average of one degree is certainly no small task. As Professor Kilham said last issue, because of the Earth's natural atmospheric patters, the polar regions are warming far more rapidly than temperate or equatorial regions. This means that the equatorial and temperate regions may warm by a small amount, while the polar regions warm by about four or five degrees, which still only results in an average temperature increase of one degree for the planet on the whole.
This is exactly what we have been observing recently. Alaska is an excellent example of climate change gone awry. Barrow, Alaska is the northernmost point in the U.S. In this place, the sun sets in late November and doesn't rise again until early February. For much of the period in between, the region is stored in a deep freeze. In late December or early January, the average high temperature is about minus 20 degrees Celsius, and the average low temperature is about minus 30 degrees Celsius. This previous winter, however, Barrow saw a heat wave that sent high temperatures 20 degrees above normal, for a period of 10 days. If Philadelphia's temperatures were 20 degrees above normal in January, it would feel like May or June. Alaska's summers have also been far hotter than normal. Temperatures in interior Alaska have been routinely crossing 30 degrees Celsius for the past few summers, and this June, Fairbanks, Alaska peaked at 35 degrees Celsius. That's one degree hotter than the hottest day we've seen so far in Philadelphia this summer.
It could be that these are just natural freak heat waves. But that is highly unlikely. As can be seen from the chart, the mean temperature of the planet has been steadily increasing. This increase hasn't been observed anywhere in the tropics or the temperate regions, though. It has to be happening somewhere, and it's happening at the poles. Shrinking snow cover and arctic ice across the Northern Hemisphere has also been observed. The global sea level has risen by about 15 centimeters.
So what can we expect in the future? Well, carbon dioxide emissions will keep increasing. The CO2 emissions in 1900 were a fraction of what they were in 1970. The CO2 emissions in 1970 were a fraction of what they are in 2004. And unless developing countries stop developing, and population growth in developed countries halts altogether, it is very likely that the CO2 emissions today in 2004 a fraction of what they will be in 2050. So it is likely that we are going to see much of what was seen in the past century, but more accelerated and drastic. The Environmental Protection Agency web site expects the average global temperature to rise by over two degrees Celsius over the next 50 years, and maybe even as much as five degrees Celsius over the next century. Once again, this increase will be seen mostly at the poles. Under this scenario, we will see a melting of all the polar ice caps and a sea level rise of more than 75 centimeters. Global precipitation patterns will change widely, and there will be more cases of extreme floods and extreme droughts, along with other climactic chaos.
Is all this surely going to happen? No, of course not. The climate on the planetary scale is extremely complex to say the least and nothing can be pinned down with certainty. However, if we don't realize that there's a problem and continue on our current course, then what I mentioned here is likely to happen, based on what we've observed in the past. I myself am quite optimistic about the future. I think we, as a species, can overcome any problem set before us. We just need to realize quickly that there is a problem, and work to solve it. Oil consumption in most developed countries, such as Japan and Europe, is already falling with the introduction of economical cars and new technology. Oil consumption in the U.S. is still increasing, but it's increasing slowly and is stabilizing. The problem comes from developing nations like China and India, which find themselves in the same place that the U.S. and Europe were 50 years ago. China recently overtook Japan to become the second largest consumer of oil in the world.
It is imperative that developed countries control their CO2 emissions if global CO2 emissions are to be stabilized. It will take a concerted global effort to provide developing nations the money they need to implement more efficient technology to control CO2 emissions. In addition to limiting the amount of CO2 released into the atmosphere, we should try to pull as much CO2 out of the atmosphere as possible. Forests can be carbon sinks in that they pull carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and store it within themselves. In addition to implementing better technology, we must also encourage the growth of forests as carbon sinks. Ultimately, though, I think that we will be able to prevent a global catastrophe from occurring. It will take a lot of effort, but it can definitely be done.
First of all, global warming is real. It's been happening steadily and we've been documenting it. The Earth has been warming, and it is largely, if not entirely, due to human actions. Over the past century, the Earth has warmed by about one degree Celsius. More than half of that change has taken place over the past 30 years, when carbon dioxide emissions due to combustion of fossil fuels peaked. Although this may not sound like a lot, it actually is. The Earth's average temperature is about 18 degrees Celsius, and to warm the whole planet by an average of one degree is certainly no small task. As Professor Kilham said last issue, because of the Earth's natural atmospheric patters, the polar regions are warming far more rapidly than temperate or equatorial regions. This means that the equatorial and temperate regions may warm by a small amount, while the polar regions warm by about four or five degrees, which still only results in an average temperature increase of one degree for the planet on the whole.
This is exactly what we have been observing recently. Alaska is an excellent example of climate change gone awry. Barrow, Alaska is the northernmost point in the U.S. In this place, the sun sets in late November and doesn't rise again until early February. For much of the period in between, the region is stored in a deep freeze. In late December or early January, the average high temperature is about minus 20 degrees Celsius, and the average low temperature is about minus 30 degrees Celsius. This previous winter, however, Barrow saw a heat wave that sent high temperatures 20 degrees above normal, for a period of 10 days. If Philadelphia's temperatures were 20 degrees above normal in January, it would feel like May or June. Alaska's summers have also been far hotter than normal. Temperatures in interior Alaska have been routinely crossing 30 degrees Celsius for the past few summers, and this June, Fairbanks, Alaska peaked at 35 degrees Celsius. That's one degree hotter than the hottest day we've seen so far in Philadelphia this summer.
It could be that these are just natural freak heat waves. But that is highly unlikely. As can be seen from the chart, the mean temperature of the planet has been steadily increasing. This increase hasn't been observed anywhere in the tropics or the temperate regions, though. It has to be happening somewhere, and it's happening at the poles. Shrinking snow cover and arctic ice across the Northern Hemisphere has also been observed. The global sea level has risen by about 15 centimeters.
 Media Credit: Environmental Protection Agency As seen on this chart, despite fluctuations, the Earth´s average temperature has risen on the whole by about one degree Celsius over the past century. |
So what can we expect in the future? Well, carbon dioxide emissions will keep increasing. The CO2 emissions in 1900 were a fraction of what they were in 1970. The CO2 emissions in 1970 were a fraction of what they are in 2004. And unless developing countries stop developing, and population growth in developed countries halts altogether, it is very likely that the CO2 emissions today in 2004 a fraction of what they will be in 2050. So it is likely that we are going to see much of what was seen in the past century, but more accelerated and drastic. The Environmental Protection Agency web site expects the average global temperature to rise by over two degrees Celsius over the next 50 years, and maybe even as much as five degrees Celsius over the next century. Once again, this increase will be seen mostly at the poles. Under this scenario, we will see a melting of all the polar ice caps and a sea level rise of more than 75 centimeters. Global precipitation patterns will change widely, and there will be more cases of extreme floods and extreme droughts, along with other climactic chaos.
Is all this surely going to happen? No, of course not. The climate on the planetary scale is extremely complex to say the least and nothing can be pinned down with certainty. However, if we don't realize that there's a problem and continue on our current course, then what I mentioned here is likely to happen, based on what we've observed in the past. I myself am quite optimistic about the future. I think we, as a species, can overcome any problem set before us. We just need to realize quickly that there is a problem, and work to solve it. Oil consumption in most developed countries, such as Japan and Europe, is already falling with the introduction of economical cars and new technology. Oil consumption in the U.S. is still increasing, but it's increasing slowly and is stabilizing. The problem comes from developing nations like China and India, which find themselves in the same place that the U.S. and Europe were 50 years ago. China recently overtook Japan to become the second largest consumer of oil in the world.
It is imperative that developed countries control their CO2 emissions if global CO2 emissions are to be stabilized. It will take a concerted global effort to provide developing nations the money they need to implement more efficient technology to control CO2 emissions. In addition to limiting the amount of CO2 released into the atmosphere, we should try to pull as much CO2 out of the atmosphere as possible. Forests can be carbon sinks in that they pull carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and store it within themselves. In addition to implementing better technology, we must also encourage the growth of forests as carbon sinks. Ultimately, though, I think that we will be able to prevent a global catastrophe from occurring. It will take a lot of effort, but it can definitely be done.
Viewing Comments 1 - 1 of 2
christi
posted 9/04/07 @ 1:13 PM EST
Very Stupid and not true no facts to prove it nothing sorry this failed
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